• You’re a Mean One…

    Market stress continues, as the S&P 500 has fallen over 13% this month, and is on track to be the worst December in history. When used effectively, cash can be an incredibly effective way to manage risks during times of stress like we’re in now. We explore these uses, and look at whether the Grinch...

  • Nowhere to Run

    Over the past 18 months, we have been preparing portfolios for what we view as the inevitable risk that assets begin to move in sync with one another. This is typical late cycle behavior, and one that poses difficulty for traditional portfolio management. This is now occurring, and we continue to place a premium on...

  • Don’t be a Turkey

    In his excellent book “Black Swan”, Nassim Taleb wrote: “A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to the turkey’s staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys ‘with increased statistical confidence.’ The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving. Then comes that day when...

  • Elections and Volatility

    Midterm elections occur next Tuesday, and there is plenty of discussion on how the outcome may affect stock prices. But what does the data tell us from previous elections? Also, volatility, whether due to elections or not, is a common measure of risk. But is the “VIX” the best way to analyze it? Election Insights...

  • The Butterfly Effect

    Chaos Theory is a branch of mathematics that focuses on the behavior of complex, dynamic systems such as the weather, fluid mechanics and financial markets. A popular expression from this theory tells of a butterfly that flaps its wings in China and causes a hurricane in Texas. What could be the butterfly in today’s markets?...

  • What do you See?

    Confirmation bias is one of the most prevalent mistakes investors make in the market. They are bullish or bearish, likely for the wrong reasons. In reality a better approach is to not be bullish nor bearish, which will allow for a more well rounded investment analysis and decision making. We provide compelling reasons to be...

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