• Cycles & Anniversaries

    Knowing where you are within an economic, investment, or social cycle may be the single most important factor in making an investment decision. History is rife with examples of cycle extremes, both on the upside and on the downside, offering excellent corollaries to today’s cycle environment. We should adjust our thinking based on where we...

  • Cyborgs & Recessions

    With rapid advancements in technology computing power, we now have access to information that was once unfathomable. But having information and properly using information are two very different things. A successful investment strategy must combine the benefits of both humans and machines. Numerous economic indicators are flashing warning signs. Most recently, December retail sales came...

  • Dipping Our Toes

    Prudent management of portfolios does not include an “all-in” clause. As the market continues to show resilience following the steep selloff in the fourth quarter last year, we are continuing to reallocate out of cash and into equity and other attractive investments. However, we’re not convinced we are out of the woods just yet. Plus,...

  • You’re a Mean One…

    Market stress continues, as the S&P 500 has fallen over 13% this month, and is on track to be the worst December in history. When used effectively, cash can be an incredibly effective way to manage risks during times of stress like we’re in now. We explore these uses, and look at whether the Grinch...

  • Nowhere to Run

    Over the past 18 months, we have been preparing portfolios for what we view as the inevitable risk that assets begin to move in sync with one another. This is typical late cycle behavior, and one that poses difficulty for traditional portfolio management. This is now occurring, and we continue to place a premium on...

  • Don’t be a Turkey

    In his excellent book “Black Swan”, Nassim Taleb wrote: “A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to the turkey’s staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys ‘with increased statistical confidence.’ The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving. Then comes that day when...

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